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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.